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Fostik A, Galbraith N. StatCan COVID-19: Changes in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. December 1, 2021. Accessed November 18, 2024. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00041-eng.htm.
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Maas, S. How Did the COVID Pandemic Affect the Number of Births? National Bureau of Economic Research. July 1, 2022. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://www.nber.org/digest/202207/how-did-covid-pandemic-affect-number-births
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Pomar L, Favre G, de Labrusse C, Contier A, Boulvain M, Baud D. Impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth rates in Europe: a time series analysis in 24 countries. Human Reproduction (Oxford, England). 2022;37(12):2921-2931. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deac215
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Perinatal Services BC. Perinatal Health Report: British Columbia 2021/22. September 2023. Accessed November 18, 2024. http://www.perinatalservicesbc.ca/Documents/Data-Surveillance/Reports/Perinatal_Health_Report_BC_202122.pdf
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Mooi-Reci I, Wooden M, Zilio F. Baby Bump or Baby Slump? COVID-19, Lockdowns, and their Effects on Births in Australia. SSM Popul Health. 2024;25:101604. Published 2024 Jan 5. doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2024.101604
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Sobotka T, Zeman K, Jasilioniene A, et al. Pandemic Roller‐Coaster? Birth trends in Higher‐Income countries during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Population and Development Review. 2023;50(S1):23-58. doi:10.1111/padr.12544
Birth Volumes (Live and Stillbirths) in Ontario by Fiscal Year
The number of births fell from 144,718 in 2019/20 to 139,241 in 2020/21 (coinciding with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown), which represented a 3.8% decrease in annual births. Following this, birth volumes nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2021/22 (144,127), but then decreased again in 2022/23 (139,096). In the most recent year of available data, 2023/24, birth volumes have rebounded again to pre-pandemic levels (144,063). Notably, however, these “rebounds” in 2021/22 and 2023/24 do not represent a compensatory increase in births equivalent to the decreases seen in 2020/21 and 2022/23. In other words, in the last 4 years, there has been a net loss of more than 9,000 births across the province and these changes may have important impacts on demographic patterns and population planning in the future (for example, school enrollment).
This volatility in recent birth volumes could be a signal of changing fertility intentions because of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in the spring of 2021, almost 11% of Canadian survey respondents aged 15 to 49 indicated that they wanted fewer children than before because of the pandemic, and around 14% indicated that they wanted a baby later than previously planned (Fostik and Galbraith, 2021).
Internationally, a drop in births followed by a “rebound” was also documented in the USA (Maas, 2022). Decreases in birth volumes in 2020/21 followed by a rebound in 2021/22 were also observed in a study of 24 European countries (Pomar et al., 2022), although trends varied between countries depending on several factors, including income per capita and lockdown lengths.
However, the trend of a decrease followed by a rebound in births was not observed everywhere. For example, while a drop in deliveries was observed in British Columbia in 2020/21 (dropped 3.3% from 2019/20), the volumes stayed consistent into 2021/22 (Perinatal Services BC, 2023). On the other hand, Australia saw an increase in births during the pandemic (Mooi-Reci et al., 2024).
The decrease in births that we observed in 2022/23 aligns with preliminary data from a study of 38 higher-income countries, which showed a general downward trend in fertility in 2022 (Sobotka et al., 2023). As for 2023/24 birth volumes, more research is needed to see if this matches international trends.
In general, annual birth volumes have been more volatile since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. More work is needed to understand these trends in the Ontario context.
BORN Ontario, 2012-2024
- BORN Ontario strives to better understand how our data can be used to inform health system partners on the intersection between social determinants of health, indigeneity, and perinatal and child health outcomes. This table includes data that may or may not support reflections on indigeneity and health equity. We cannot conclusively or accurately identify the extent to which BORN data reflect indigeneity and equity-deserving groups. This pursuit is ongoing, and we appreciate your support and ideas related to enabling our efforts in pursuit of more equitable outcomes and programming.
- Data were extracted from the BORN Information System (BIS) on 2 Nov, 2024. Note that data submission to the BIS is both voluntary and open to updates and amendments. This table represents a snapshot of the BIS on the date of data extraction.
- Fiscal year was defined by infant date of birth. Each fiscal year ranges from April 1 of one year to March 31 of the next year, inclusive.
- This table includes supplementation of live birth records from Newborn Screening Ontario (NSO) because submission of hospital perinatal data is currently incomplete for the 2021/22, 2022/23, and 2023/24 fiscal years.
Infant Date of Birth | Total Birth Volumes |
---|---|
2012/2013 | 144,483 |
2013/2014 | 143,060 |
2014/2015 | 143,306 |
2015/2016 | 143,319 |
2016/2017 | 143,579 |
2017/2018 | 144,458 |
2018/2019 | 143,843 |
2019/2020 | 144,718 |
2020/2021 | 139,241 |
2021/2022 | 144,127 |
2022/2023 | 139,096 |
2023/2024 | 144,063 |
Total | 1,717,293 |
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